avadel avdl

AVDL | Insider Trading | Option Activity

avadel avdl

Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) is currently close winning regulatory approval for FT218, a controlled-release version of sodium oxybate, which is used to treat narcolepsy. Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC (AVDL) is looking like a strong candidate for a long-term position. It has a number of elements that signal appreciation. These include:

1. Unusual options trading activity.

2 . Insiders buying stock on the open market.

3. A strong contingent of top-performing hedge funds holding the stock.

4. Analyst ratings

Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) is ranked higher by analysts than 80% of stocks. The average stock price projection is $16.75 for the next 12 year. It is deemed a strong buy. Recently AVDL stock has seen a decent upward shift, bringing it closer to the analyst target. However, it has a long way to go. And, if it does reach the target, it will come close to tripling in value.

Avadel Pharmaceuticals is waiting for NDA/FDA approval their drug candidate FT218. FT218  looks to have a good chance of approval. If given regulatory approval, there is a high probability of  attaining  success in the market. The current sodium oxybates available must be taken twice each night.

Narcolepsy affects more than 200,000 people in the US alone. The total worldwide market has an estimated value of about  $1.7 billion each year. Avadel’s (AVDL) research suggests that physicians and patients are interested in a drug that will need to be taken only once nightly.

AVDL  has a market cap of $350 million. With minimal sales the company will have enough revenue to support a $350 million valuation. AVDL presently has enough cash on hand to cover about 22% of its valuation and enough to support the company well into 2021. 

It is speculated that AVDL might be a buyout target for Jazz Pharmaceuticals which has a competing drug product named Xyrem. Xyrem has to be taken twice each night by patients, while Avadel’s FT218 only has to be taken once.

In 2002, the U.S. FDA  approved Xyrem ( sodium oxybate) to treat the narcolepsy. Xyrem has been recommended by the American Academy for Sleep Medicine as its standard of care.

Xyrem accounts for two-thirds of Jazz Pharmaceuticals’ $2 billion annual revenue, and Xyrem’s sales are increasing more than 10% annually. Xyrem costs over $5,000 for a  bottle of 6 ounces of the liquid. Patients average using 2-3  bottles per month. As an example, If 20,000 patients (10% of the narcolepsy patient population)  in the US market were to take Xyrem regularly, the retail cost to do so at 2 bottles per month would add up to 2.4 billion dollars per year.

There is certainly a good reason to believe that Avadel will be able to gain market share with it’s narcolepsy drug, if approved. 

AVDL Recent Open Market Insider Trading

INSIDER TOTAL SHARES PRICE PAID SHARES BOUGHT
MCHUGH THOMAS S - Officer CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
21,500
$6.00
4,000
ENDE ERIC J - Director
84,900
$5.79
17,000
MCCAMISH MARK ANTHONY - Director
171,000
$5.83
52,398
MCCAMISH MARK ANTHONY - Director
118,602
$5.73
118,602